The Empiricist

Kevin Rudd has introduced a new approach to foreign policy in his approach to China over the arrest of Australian businessman Stern Hu. You might call it the “vindictive dweeb”. It could also be called the “passive aggressive ex girlfriend strategy” or the avenging creampuff. The basic strategy has two components.

1. be a creampuff. When a foreign power and trading partner snubs you by arresting your top businessmen for doing business, do nothing. Leave it up to office workers in the local embassy to furiously fire paperwork at the enemy, while you continue on a European talkfest issuing soothing dismissals of the problem. Act like it’s no big deal.
Explain the concept of “saving face” in Chinese culture as if we’re all high school students, and as if this isn’t a blatant, contemptuous insult. By the way, if “face” is so bloody important, why did they arrest Hu without warning? Where’s the face saving for Australia?

2. Make nasty threats. Tell them that if things continue, vengeance will be visited upon them. Hint darkly at all the dastardly, underhand things you’ll do if you don’t get your way. You’ll put a horse’s head in their bedsheets; call up their grandmother and call her mean names.

Want to see it in action? Here’s how it works.

Step 1. (creampuff phase).

Mr Rudd strengthened his language on the case today, saying that a range of foreign governments and corporations will be watching developments and drawing their own conclusions.

I bet the Chinese are quaking in their boots. People will be “watching developments?” Oh no! Say it isn’t so. The only thing that could be more hideous than that is if they “draw their own conclusions!” Quick! Tie him to the comfy chair! Poke him with the soft cushion!

But in case that language is too strong, make sure that your creampuff credentials are established.

The Prime Minister says he’s being regularly briefed on the case, while he’s taking an “informal break”.

Wow, Mr Hu’s family must be relieved that he’s being regularly briefed on the case. THe fact that he’s not planning to do anything about it must be a bit of a concern though. Still, there are worse things than being locked in a Chinese prison for the rest of your life. I can’t think of any right now, but there must be some.

Step 2 (nasty threat phase)

Australia obviously has economic interests in our relationship with China, but again I remind our Chinese friends that so too do they have economic interests at stake in the relationship in Australia and in other countries.

In fairness to Rudd, this is a good point. China does have economic interests with Australia and other countries, and those interests will probably be harmed by the Hu case. Businesses need to be able to operate with confidence that they will not be targeted by zealously pursuing their economic goals. But China has armies of economists that could have given them this advice. Rudd isn’t telling the Chinese this as a friendly tip. This is not a helpful suggestiion from a neutral observer. In context (ie Australian prime minister talking about an Australian citizen accused of espionage), it is unequivocally a threat. A nasty threat.
This completes step 2.

We watch with interest to see how this strategy works out for Kevin Rudd, and more importantly, for Stern Hu.